Rutland
Herald and Montpelier (Barre) Times Argus
Sunday
August 18th, 2013
By
Barrie Dunsmore
It
was imprecise. But somehow the phrase “Arab Spring” caught on as a way to
describe the revolutions which began to roil the Arab World in the early months
of 2011. For many, both inside and outside the Arab World, the word “spring” conjured
up the idea of renewal and hope after so many decades of repressive military
dictatorships. For us old Cold Warriors the Prague Spring came to mind. That
was the spring and summer of 1968 when liberals in Czechoslovakia dared to
question the domination of the Soviet Union - only to have their incipient
rebellion squashed when the Russian tanks of August rolled into Prague. As someone who covered that story- the joy of
its beginning and the tragedy of its ending – I watched the Prague Spring become
a bitter disappointment to those millions behind the Iron Curtain which then
divided Europe, yearning to be free.
Why
would the Arab Spring succeed where Prague had failed? Well for one thing Arabs
seeking freedom were not facing a superpower like the Soviet Union, determined
to keep its empire intact. The early successes of the Arab Spring- the
overthrow of despotic regimes that had been in power in Tunisia, Egypt and
Libya for a collective total of more than 120 years – seemed to hold a genuine
promise of better days ahead. Some progress was made, particularly in Egypt,
where a democratically elected government took office.
Then
this past week virtual civil war exploded in Egypt. In a single day security
forces killed at least 525 and wounded more 3000 supporters of the deposed government,
which the military had ousted last month. Things appear worse now than before
the revolution of 2011. The Arab Spring seems not so much a joke as a cruel
hoax.
Yet
much of what has happened in Egypt in the past two plus years could have been
foreseen. It was inevitable that the
Muslim Brotherhood would emerge as the most powerful political force because
they had been organizing underground for more than 80 years. Most secular
Egyptian liberals and the students didn’t have a clue about how to form
coalitions and win election campaigns.
But
the reality is that democracy is not simply a product of elections. It needs
democratic institutions, the rule of law, freedom of religion, speech and the
press – and these can’t be instantly created. Also, in a pluralistic society
such as Egypt, power must be shared between Islamists and secularists and this
is where Egypt’s first try at democracy failed. The elected former President
Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government, refused to share power
with the secularists- who then cheered when his Islamic government was
overthrown by the army.
It
was also inevitable that the Egyptian Army was not going to allow the Muslim
Brotherhood government - democratically elected or not- to destroy the Egyptian
economy. That economy was imploding due in part to incompetent management but
mostly because of political turmoil. The tourism industry, which historically
has been one of Egypt’s greatest moneymakers, had dramatically fallen off
because tourists were not keen to visit an on-going revolution. Although it is
not widely reported, the Egyptian tourist industry is substantially owned and
operated by- guess who? -the Egyptian military. In fact, over the years the
Egyptian military has taken over all kinds of normally civilian enterprises
(much as in China.) This has made many high ranking military officers very,
very rich. As those who study the Egyptian military predicted, the generals
would do whatever was necessary to protect their perks and privileges. And as
we have seen this past week they weren’t shy
about doing so.
It
would be easy to feel nothing but doom and gloom about Egypt’s immediate future.
But if you look at the important revolutions of the past few centuries - the
American, the French, the Russian, the Chinese and the Iranian – they have all had
different motivations and outcomes. But the one thing they have in common is
that they went through different phases which often took many years to play
out. I’ve told this story before, which I first heard from Henry Kissinger, but
it’s worth repeating. When China’s Mao
Tse Tung was in power, for much of the time his number two was Chou En Lai.
Chou was considered an erudite man and a genuine intellectual. When asked for
his opinion of the French Revolution, his response, some 200 years after the
fact, “It’s too soon to tell.” The
Chinese take the long view of history, which seems wise. Consider for a moment,
what Mao’s revolution looked like in the 1960’s compared to what China is
today.
Revolutions
rarely survive in their original form. Over time they get hijacked - by the
Bolsheviks in Russia or the Reign of Terror in France. In the 21st century, when the main
feature of our new technologies is instant gratification, this point is easily
lost. In the world of Twitter, people want immediate answers and solutions. There
was a revolution in Egypt in February and it’s already March - why no democracy
yet? Obama fails again! I suspect that many of the young people who joined the
protests in Tahrir Square to drive out former dictator Hosni Mubarak also
expected instant democracy. But as we know from history, it doesn’t work that
way.
It
is in that context that I believe we have not seen the end of Egypt’s revolution
– or even some form of Egyptian democracy. The secularists can not be frozen
out of the process as they were in phase one. But neither can the Islamists be
excluded in phase two. If political accommodations can be reached (a big if I
concede in present circumstances) and a relatively stable political system
follows, that will encourage the generals to go back to their barracks to clip
their coupons.
But
if the Arab Spring is replaced by an Arab Winter- meaning a future without
hope- that will have consequences far beyond Egypt.
I welcome your comments. To post your thoughts, click the word "comments" below.
No comments:
Post a Comment